2025 NASCAR Playoff Picture: Who's In, Who's Nervous, Who's Got To Win

As the NASCAR Cup Series regular season concludes, drivers outside playoff positions are seeking wins to secure spots. A victory guarantees playoff entry unless winners exceed the 16 available spots, which are allocated to the regular-season champion followed by winners ranked by points. Currently, 12 winners exist, and the regular-season champion will likely be a winner, meaning only 4-5 new winners could threaten existing qualifiers.

Six races remain: Dover (1-mile concrete), Indianapolis (2.5-mile flat oval), Iowa (0.875-mile oval), Watkins Glen (road course), Richmond (0.75-mile oval), and Daytona (2.5-mile drafting oval). Watkins Glen, Richmond, and Daytona are considered most likely for potential upset winners, with at most three new winners anticipated.

Drivers are categorized as follows:

Guaranteed Spots: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Shane van Gisbergen (each with three wins).

Have A Win, No Worries: William Byron, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano (one win, safe from elimination even with new winners).

Have A Win, Tiny Worry: Austin Cindric and Josh Berry (could face points battle if new winners emerge; Cindric leads Berry by six points but trails Logano by 103 points).

No Win, Tiny Worry: Tyler Reddick (retains a slim chance at the regular-season title despite a 53-point deficit, and holds a 115-point lead over top winless driver Chris Buescher).