3 Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday 7/11/25

The article highlights appealing MLB player props based on projections, focusing on Jackson Chourio's potential against pitcher Mitchell Parker. Chourio has recorded two or more total bases in 23 of his last 44 games, positioning him as a strong candidate for success in this matchup.

Mitchell Parker's pitching metrics present significant vulnerabilities. He carries a 4.72 ERA and concerning underlying indicators: a 5.39 expected ERA (xERA), a 4.97 expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), a 5.00 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA), and a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate. His 4.97 xFIP ranks as the third-worst among eligible major league starters. Furthermore, Parker has allowed 36 hits over his last five starts, spanning 26.1 innings.

The matchup favors Chourio specifically because of his strong performance against left-handed pitchers this season, combined with Parker's demonstrated struggles. This combination makes Chourio's player prop appealing for the game.