The $150M decision that could reveal Heat’s Giannis plans

Tyler Herro becomes eligible for a three-year, $149.7 million extension starting October 1st. However, if the Miami Heat are seriously pursuing a trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo, they should avoid extending Herro. Signing the extension would impose a six-month trade restriction on Herro, meaning he couldn't be traded until after the February 2026 deadline.

The Heat's hesitation isn't solely about the contract cost but centers on preserving trade flexibility. While Miami could theoretically build a trade package for Giannis without Herro, it doesn't make strategic sense to remove such a significant potential asset from their options, especially without knowing precisely what the Milwaukee Bucks would prioritize in any trade talks.

Although recent Bucks moves (waiving/stretching Damian Lillard to sign Myles Turner) are interpreted by many as a sign Giannis won't request a trade soon, his own recent comments about his future were noncommittal. As long as the possibility of a trade request exists, teams like the Heat, who previously saved assets for a Giannis pursuit instead of chasing Kevin Durant, will remain cautious about committing long-term to other players.

Extending Herro directly conflicts with the Heat's strategy of being ready to acquire Giannis. While a Giannis trade might occur in an offseason, the trend of stars being moved midseason (like Luka Doncic, Anthony Davis, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, De’Aaron Fox, James Harden, and Kevin Durant) means Miami must maintain maximum flexibility.

Herro is likely a crucial piece for any potential Bucks trade. Milwaukee lacks control of its own first-round picks until 2031 and has no incentive to tank completely without Giannis. Herro offers a valuable "dual-timeline" asset: he helps the Bucks stay competitive immediately at age 25 (turning 26 in January) and holds significant trade value for the future due to his youth. This contrasts sharply with older players like Andrew Wiggins (31) or Norman Powell (32).

Therefore, while Miami could build a Giannis package without Herro, their strongest possible offer almost certainly includes him. Consequently, unless Giannis definitively commits to staying in Milwaukee before October 1st, the Heat should pass on offering Herro a new contract extension to keep their best trade asset available.