The NBA is closing in on its first $1 million per game player

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander signed a four-year supermax contract extension with the Oklahoma City Thunder. In the final year of this deal (2030-31), he is projected to earn $79 million, amounting to over $963,000 per game, bringing him close to becoming the first NBA player with a million-dollar-per-game contract.

This unprecedented salary level is driven by two key factors: the NBA's supermax extension (designated veteran extension) and a rapidly rising salary cap. The supermax, created in 2017, allows eligible players (7-8 years experience, same team, meeting awards criteria) to sign extensions starting at 35% of the salary cap. Gilgeous-Alexander is the 14th player to sign such a deal.

"Basketball inflation" has significantly outpaced general inflation, causing the salary cap to surge. A decade ago, the cap was $63 million (approx. $85 million adjusted for inflation), but it reached $141 million for 2024-25. Salaries are set to rise even faster due to the NBA's new 11-year, $76 billion national TV deal ($7 billion per season), which is 2.6 times larger than the previous deal.

This massive influx of TV money will profoundly impact the salary cap and supermax salaries. While the new CBA implemented "cap smoothing" to prevent a single massive spike (like the 34% jump that allowed Kevin Durant's signing), it allows for maximum annual cap increases of 10%. The cap is expected to increase by 10% next season, raising the supermax starting point by 10%, with a projected 7% increase in 2026-27. Compound increases could see the cap double from $150 million next season to over $300 million by 2033-34.

The effect on supermax values is dramatic. Stephen Curry's first supermax started at $34.7 million (35% of a $99M cap) in 2017-18. It took 5 years for the supermax value to exceed $40 million, 3 more years to exceed $50 million, is projected to take 2 more years to reach $60 million, and only one additional projected year to surpass $70 million, showcasing the accelerating pace.