Thursday Night Football Projections and Start/Sit Advice: Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, and Others

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Baltimore Ravens in Arrowhead Stadium for the first Thursday Night Football game of the season, a rematch of the previous season's AFC Championship Game won by the Chiefs 17-10. The article questions whether the game will be low-scoring again or if the offenses will perform better after offseason upgrades.

The article uses sportsbook odds and projections to analyze fantasy football start/sit decisions. Lamar Jackson is highlighted as a strong QB1 start, particularly because he excels as an underdog. Since 2019, he has averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game in wins as an underdog, clearing 18.5 points in every such win. His performance in these upset wins is compared favorably to Patrick Mahomes as a passer, with similar passer ratings and yards per pass. Jackson's strong start last season with a healthy roster under Todd Monken (74.3% completion, 10.3 rushes per game) and his status as the defending MVP further support starting him.

Patrick Mahomes is noted for his exceptional performance in season openers, never scoring under 19.5 fantasy points and averaging a remarkable 0.72 fantasy points per pass in those games. While the Chiefs indicated a shift in strategy for 2024 to potentially increase his average depth of target, Mahomes remains a locked-in weekly starter. However, the analysis suggests Jackson might be the slightly more valuable QB for this specific Week 1 matchup.

Derrick Henry is presented as a must-start. He has cleared 16 PPR points in seven of his last nine games as an underdog. The Ravens are expected to use a smash-mouth approach featuring Henry early to free up Jackson later. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most yards per carry to RBs last season, and the game script is unlikely to force Baltimore away from using Henry. He is recommended as an every-week play.

Isiah Pacheco is identified as having a clear path to being the most valuable RB in this game. His value increased late in drafts as recognition grew that he is more than just a beneficiary of defenses focusing on Mahomes. Last season, Pacheco recorded at least four red-zone touches or four targets in 11 of 14 games, solidifying his role as a legitimate three-down back and a fantasy RB1 across formats.